A better dance with COVID-19
Same social distancing pain, less COVID loss.
The 11 minute video above describes how two communities can experience the same social distancing and economic pain, but much different levels of loss from COVID-19. Since any sane community will want to save its hospitals from being overloaded and save its medical personnel from being slammed they will have to do social distancing at some point in time. (the virus is that inexorable). And if you are going to enter this social distancing dance with the virus then its best to dance with the virus at low prevalence rates rather than high ones.
I’m planing on doing some more of these barebones productions. If you are interested, please let me know what works and what doesn’t work in this video and I’ll try to improve them going forward.
The takeaway in one picture
In an alternate reality if San Francisco had started its first shutdown 4 days earlier, and if everyone’s social behavior (ie reopening, closing, and social distancing) had remained the same, we would be dancing with COVID-19 at a prevalence of 10 to 30 new cases per day rather than 30 to 100 new cases per day as we have been.