The Phoenix Data Project Dashboard

This is where you’ll find alternative interpretations and examinations of San Francisco’s COVID-19 dataset. If I can glean any additional insight from what San Francisco’s dashboard is providing, I will share it. I updated this dashboard on July 13th, 2022. As conditions change and as different information becomes more relevant, this dashboard changes to highlight the information I consider to be most important.

Here is what my color scheme means which overlaps but is not the same as others.

• Green means that I like the trajectory that San Francisco is on and I can see us getting our own epidemic under control.

• Yellow is a neutral color in which the statistics do not look good but they do not look bad either.

• Orange is a warning color indicating that I don’t like the looks of where a particular metric or the whole group is headed.

• Red is a critical color meaning that San Francisco could face imminent problems and could be headed toward increased social distancing.

• Purple San Francisco’s healthcare system is in imminent danger of being overloaded.

San Francisco is deep orange- The BA.5 variant is breaking through.

In the last update I mentioned that I would probably know in early July whether a monkey wrench was headed our way. Unfortunately the data seems to be pointing to BA.5 as being that monkey wrench.

The concentrations of COVID-19 in wastewater look to be surging even higher than the already high background level that they were at. Hospitalizations which is one of the most important indicators has surpassed all but the winter peaks of 2020-21 and 2021-22 and I’m worried that as the number of breakthrough cases grows those will continue to rise.

I listened to Bob Wachter say he’s not yet worried about hospital capacity in the podcast below. So I won’t yet worry. However our currently doubling time is one month and if current trends continue we could be in bad shape in mid/end of August.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/podcasts/article/Listen-Bob-Wachter-on-the-latest-coronavirus-17300564.php

If you know someone in the healthcare field or if you interact with someone in the healthcare field, do your best to thank them and support them. The current surge has been going on for a long time and only looks to be getting worse. These workers are working almost just as hard as earlier in the pandemic but not getting as much notice as earlier in the pandemic. We just aren’t banging pots and pans the way we used to.

If you are immunocompromised, I wanted to make sure that you know about a drug called Evusheld. It is referenced in the following article. Please let me know if you’re having a hard time getting hold of resources that you need if you are in the Bay Area and get sick.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/opinion/openforum/article/COVID-shot-17152127.php

My suggestions are below and the following article also had some good ideas.

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/30/well/live/ba2-omicron-covid.html

My recommendations suggestions

This dashboard’s recommendations aren’t going to be as forcefully worded as I’ve done in the past. Instead I’ll give some thoughts and suggestions.

At this point in the pandemic when it is not as urgent to be careful for the sake of the rest of the herd, the decisions you make can be more personal. COVID-19 is definitely still circulating widely. Ask the question how much risk can you and those close to you tolerate?

Here are my thoughts:

• Wear a mask if you want to reduce your chances of Long COVID. If you get reinfected with COVID-19, you still have a chance of getting Long COVID and might even have a greater chance of getting long COVID. I personally don’t think the risk is worth it but that’s your call.

• Wear a mask indoors to help blunt this current wave. The BA.5 variant can reinfect you even if you just had Omicron. We know wearing a high quality mask cuts down on transmission. There’s no harm in wearing a mask and it is not that inconvenient.

• If you have COVID-19 don’t wait to take Paxlovid. If you feel at all vulnerable and have any suspicion that you have COVID-19 be pro-active, get a prescription, and take Paxlovid. It could keep you out of the hospital. If you are uninsured or are having any problems getting your hands on it please contact me. I believe the LTF has a way of getting a prescription for people who don’t have insurance.

• Have some rapid tests on hand. The supply of rapid tests seems to be holding up and they are useful.

• If you feel sick stay home. Rapid tests can repeatedly return false negatives. If you absolutely must go out when you feel sick, wear a mask.

• If you test positive, stay home. Even if you feel well if you test positive please don’t expose other people.

• I’ve been a little lax about rapid testing when getting together with close friends but I’ll probably start busting out the rapid tests more often.

• If you are using rapid tests use them properly.

  • Rapid tests must be taken in the hours before getting together with others and definitely not the previous day.

  • Swab yourself well and follow the rapid test instructions carefully. Poor swabbing and poor handling of these tests will give you false negative test results.

  • Rapid tests will turn up false negatives so do not use a rapid test to visit with someone who is at high COVID-19 risk.

• Get vaccinated and boosted if you’re eligible not so much to keep from being contagious but to keep you from going to the hospital and using up a hospital bed.

• Get the people around you vaccinated and boosted if eligible not so much to keep them from being contagious but to keep them out of the hospital.