Hidden data

The Economist looks here at the official death count. By comparing this number to overall mortality rates, they cross check the official numbers. In a certain place, we might see Y amount of deaths in a year at this time. This year, this place has seen X deaths, which is likely much higher. Subtracting the typical deaths from this years total, X-Y=N, we get an overage, and N should be close to the official death count of Covid-19.

The one US example, New York City, looks like the numbers are more or less spot on. Only a 2% difference. But in other places the numbers are very different — the official numbers only account of 50-70% of the “overage.” Meaning that there may be some serious undercounting.

This has happened for many reasons, and it might be happening similarly in places outside of New York. The true cost in lives is likely higher than we think.

Peat’s note there a very similar article here New York Times coronavirus death toll total that focuses more on excess deaths within the US.