Toy Simulation

This little toy simulation tool (built with Google Graph) gives you some idea of the pace of change over time, and how different variables can impact that curve.

There are two graphs:

• The first is a simple look at infections versus recovery. The yellow line looks alarming because it is both the recovered and those who died, and we know the death rate is much lower.

• The second is a look at how medical operations could be overwhelmed based on the ability to provide ICU beds to those most impacted by the virus. China built that hospital in 10 days for a reason!

The model  is just for you to be able to get a feel for the dynamics of epidemiology.  It is a toy simulation. It is not accurate but it will allow you to get a sense of scale and shape.  Note that an exponential increase is still an exponential increase and even with a flattened curve of 7 days versus 3 days there is still a point in late September when the ICU is overwhelmed. 

Before you despair please note that this model does not take into account the possibility of Wuhan containment nor does it take into account the possibility of significant positive government or private intervention.