Think about all your past selves during the course of this crisis. Could any of your past selves imagine the world your current self is living in? Now, take that same thought experiment and apply it to your future self looking back at your current self.

Take away: When facing an exponential rise, like that of COVID-19, you and your community should always be acting more forcefully than you think you should. Furthermore, you and your community should always be acting sooner rather than later. Your future self will thank you for it.

I came to this insight during a vacation to spend some time with East Coast friends during the week of March 10th. I had some niggling doubts as I flew out, but I said to myself “How bad can things get?” The world changed so much during that week that it made me question myself. I realized that I had been making the same mistake over and over during this crisis: I underestimated the power of the virus growing exponentially.

Do you remember when the novel coronavirus was a crisis in a few hospitals in China? A city in China? A province in China? A city in Washington state?

Do you remember when social distancing meant bumping elbows instead of staying six feet apart? Do you remember when professional athletes were playing in empty stadiums and not worried about getting sick instead of not playing at all? Do you remember when keeping your hands clean meant a little extra hand washing not disposable gloves, wipes, and disinfecting every surface you touch? Do you remember reading about the shut down in China and saying to yourself that would be crazy if that happened here?

What do you think now about all of those past selves? Be sympathetic to your past selves. Humans are not wired to understand the power of exponential growth. It takes a huge amount of mental effort to push yourself to realize that as long as this virus is growing exponentially you will always be underestimating it.

I find that even now, having had this insight, and having lived with the insight for a few weeks, it is still hard to get my mind wrapped around exponential growth. I’m better at understanding exponential growth intellectually rather than emotionally. I do not think I can emotionally fathom the world we are about to enter.

Messages from your future selves

Lessons from Italy’s Response.

Quarantined Italians record messages to themselves 10 days ago, when the pandemic hadn’t yet killed 1,809 people and infected more than 24,000 across the country.

https://www.theatlantic.com/video/index/608113/italy-coronavirus/?utm_campaign=share&utm_medium=email&utm_source=atl