Where I’m at March 2022 Edition
Looking backwards to assess the now.
Our new case count is currently still quite high. Around 165 people catch COVID-19 every day. That is more than the peaks of the first two waves. But you must judge a disease by its harm, and so let me try and place the impact of that case count into perspective with the following table. It shows the rate of death at the tail of a couple of waves. (Ie at the trough between the end of one wave of COVID-19 and the start of the next.)
| Date | Wave Transition | Death Rate at the Transition |
|---|---|---|
| June 12th 2021 | Tail of Winter 2020 | One death every 6 days |
| November 25th 2021 | Tail of Delta | One death every 3 days |
| March 5th 2022 | Tail of Omicron | One death every 3 days |
So at this point the Omicron wave is similar to the end of the Delta wave. However we’re not quite as low as June of 2021. If the Omicron wave continues to drop as precipitously as it has been, then in two weeks we might be at the lowest point of harm of this pandemic.
Expect at least another mini-wave
Because humans are forgetful and this virus is wily, we will probably dance with each other again. As we lift more and more restrictions it becomes easier and easier for COVID-19 to spread around. Probably at some point in the future the growing ease of social transmission will cross paths with our waning herd immunity and at that point a new COVID-19 wave will start.
The size of the wave will depend on how sharply these two trends cross each other. Omicron was especially nasty because a large increase in contagiousness and transmissibility met a steep drop in immunity.
It is really hard to keep something that grows exponentially in check forever.
The good news is that we know how to react.
We have and can use masks.
We have and can use rapid tests.
We have and can use effective drugs.
If necessary, we have and can use boosters.
The harm caused by future waves will probably be diminished. (That’s just a guess please don’t quote me. :-) )
Lessons we didn’t learn
Instead of blithely and desperately trying to return to pre-pandemic life, I wish that we’d bring some pandemic lessons into our new reality. I wish / hope the following things had happened / will happen.
Comprehensive rapid testing: I want a combined rapid test for cold, flu, and covid. If you’re feeling sniffly and /or run down, find out whether you’ve got something contagious. Let’s use our COVID-19 lessons to lessen the impact of the flu season too.
Real contact tracing: Contact tracing can be so much more than it ever was in this pandemic. SFDPH never showed me any data that their contact tracing actually broke many transmission chains. The LTF and UCSF partnership did do substantial and effective work for the past year but I don’t know if that will persist in anyway for say the flu.
Real feedback from contact tracing: Even if contact tracing isn’t breaking transmission chains it can inform the actions of the citizenry. Why aren’t randomized contact tracing assessments informing masking and reopening policy? Assessments of random COVID-19 cases (and other contagious diseases) would help us answer the question of where COVID-19 (or the flu) is spreading the most. Which are the most contagious environments, schools, workplaces, gyms, or restaurants? Let’s not guess about what sorts of interactions spread COVID-19 and the flu but let’s get real information and give that back to the people so that we the people can make informed choices.
What’s the harm in wearing a mask: Wearing a mask is super easy and considerate. It would be nice to see wearing a mask normalized. Our culture around wearing masks is still settling down. I hope that it becomes commonplace for people who are feeling a bit under the weather to wear a mask if they need to go out. Speaking of which…
Sick leave: It looks like San Francisco and California require a basic amount of sick leave. I haven’t dug into the specifics of the laws. But employees should be encouraged to stay home when sick, to keep from spreading diseases around. Pre-pandemic I went into the office too frequently when I felt sick out of a sense of obligation. I’m not going to do that again, but I have a cushy job with decent sick leave benefits and an understanding boss. Other people should be equally lucky.
Comparing our waves up to now
Following the same methodology as my previous post https://www.phoenixdataproject.org/blog/the-fourth-wave , we can compare the waves of COVID-19 that have washed over San Francisco. The last three waves have clearly dropping hospitalization rates and death rates which is really good news.
| Statistic | Initial | Summer 2020 | Winter 2020 | Delta | Omicron |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duration in days | 98 | 128 | 237 | 166 | 85+ |
| Launch Date | March 3rd 2020 | June 12th 2020 | October 18th 2020 | June 12th 2021 | November 25th 2021 |
| Peak Date | April 23rd 2020 | August 3rd 2020 | December 31st 2020 | August 15th 2021 | January 7th 2022 |
| Total Cases | 2,968 | 9,030 | 24,966 | 17,460 | 66,130 to date |
| Total days of hospitalization | 9,119 | 10,037 | 19,887 | 10,477 | 13,147 to date |
| Total Deaths | 52 | 109 | 407 | 113 | 119 |
| Days of hospitalization per case | 3.07 | 1.11 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.20 |
| Deaths per Case (mortality rate) | 1.8% | 1.2% | 1.6% | 0.65% | 0.18% |
Things to note: from and about the waves.
Deaths per case have fallen 10 fold since the start of the pandemic.
Days of hospitalization per case has fallen 15 times since the start of the pandemic.
The days of COVID-19 hospitalization in the Omicron wave is probably an overcount because many went to the hospital for something unrelated to COVID-19 but tested positive for COVID-19.
Hospitalization days doesn’t count the number of individuals hospitalized it counts the number of days a hospital bed was occupied by someone with COVID-19. So if one person was in the hospital for 1 week that would be a total of 7 hospital days for that 1 person.