Some good news

Yes I’m nervous about the Omicron variant, but I thought I would give you some good news that brightens my outlook. We’re in a much different place than last year.

Cases and Hospitalizations are starting to decouple. COVID-19 is becoming less deadly.

During the first three waves of COVID-19 there was a close correlation between the number of cases and the number of hospitalizations roughly two weeks later. Cases predicted hospitalization.

However hospitalizations didn’t mimic the peak of the summer 2021 surge in cases, thankfully. And even more dramatically there was a smallish spike in cases in early November that never showed up in the hospital.

Having the case curve spike without the hospitalization spike means that COVID-19 is becoming less deadly to our overall population. I hypothesize that the reason for this is probably that the virus is spreading through vaccinated people who just aren’t getting as sick. Please do not think that the virus itself is less deadly. You should assume that for unvaccinated individuals that these variants are just as deadly (if not more so) as the original COVID-19.

BinaxNOW rapid test works on Omicron. So we have the power to stop this variant.

Diane Havlir from UCSF mentioned on a report back call to the LTF that the BinaxNOW test does detect the Omicron variant of COVID-19. These rapid tests are relatively easily available and fairly straight-forward to use. This means that even if this variant is nasty it can still be stopped by testing that is easily done at home.

For us since none of our household is at significant risk and since we’re all either recently vaccinated and or boosted we’ve been doing holiday parties where everyone does a test beforehand. This mitigates the risk enough for us to gather and enjoy this holiday season in a way that’s much more normal than last year.