SF Leadership an Evolving Story
Counties should not be dinged for tests run on asymptomatic individuals.
This is an update to the original post that I had written up. The original post interpreted the case data above and took SF to task for a case rate that is rising faster than other Bay Area counties. Since then I read the following article in the Chronicle None of homeless who tested positive at big SF shelter showed serious coronavirus symptoms. My original post assumed that all tests were being run on people who were symptomatic because this seems to be the current standard for testing across the entire country. If testing is being run on asymptomatic people, that will artificially drive the SARS-CoV-2 virus’ growth rate higher but not actually indicate a worsening of on the ground conditions.
Testing of asymptomatic individuals is desirable and should be encouraged.
In fact a growth rate in number of people infected with SARS-CoV-2 due to asymptomatic testing is encouraging news. It means either that testing capacity is increasing or that tests are being deployed more effectively. In either case, this is good news. It also means that a county is more likely to know what the on the ground conditions are and more likely to bring this epidemic under control.
I cannot draw a conclusion. We need to know the number of people tested who were asymptomatic.
Unfortunately after knowing the fact presented in the Chronicle’s article, I am now in the position of not being able to tell a good clear story with this data. The SF Chronicle article has sowed enough doubt in my mind that maybe SF’s excessive growth is due to its being proactive, but maybe not. I do not have enough information to tell. The media and people like myself need information about the number of individuals tested who were asymptomatic. This allows us to tell the right story and give the public a true understanding of where this epidemic is headed.
I am going to phone my supervisor and reach out however I can to ask for the following information regarding testing. I ask you to do the same. I will edit this post as I find ways of reaching out that are effective.
total number of individuals sampled on any particular day
total number of those samples that were symptomatic and positive
total number of those samples that were symptomatic and negative
total number of those samples that were symptomatic and have yet to post a result
total number of those samples that were asymptomatic and positive
total number of those samples that were asymptomatic and negative
total number of those samples that were asymptomatic and have yet to post a result
Original Post:
San Francisco What Happened to your Leadership?
In a previous post, I looked at case doubling rates for all the counties in the Bay Area. I am using the New York Times data set. Much has changed in the last eight days.
Good Progress in Most Counties with the Exception of San Francisco and Napa.
Check out the table of doubling times below. Within the counties they are sorted from worst to best. Compare the case load doubling times from last week with this week.
| Region | Days to Double Now (sorted) | Days to Double April 7th |
|---|---|---|
| United States | 11.3 | 6.1 |
| California | 12.9 | 6.2 |
| Bay Area | 15.6 | 8.7 |
| San Francisco | 10.5 | 10.3 |
| Napa | 10.6 | 10.9 |
| Alameda | 13.6 | 7.1 |
| Solano | 15.1 | 7.3 |
| Contra Costa | 16.7 | 6.29 |
| Sonoma | 17.4 | 10.4 |
| Santa Clara | 17.8 | 10.7 |
| San Mateo | 24.2 | 7.4 |
| Marin | 31.2 | 11.91 |
Seven of the nine Bay Area counties saw their growth rates slow and the doubling times increase by many days. In many of these cases the doubling times themselves doubled which is a good sign.
Unfortunately San Francisco which was looking like a leader last week especially given its vulnerable populations is not looking like a leader any longer. San Francisco’s doubling time is not any better than the doubling time of the entire United States. And at this rate of doubling San Francisco will overtake Santa Clara County as a leader in number of COVID-19 cases. This is worrisome because Santa Clara County is the current exemplar of response.
One source of this growth rate trend could be outbreaks in San Francisco’s vulnerable population. There was a substantial number of cases, 70, in a homeless shelter, Mission Local coverage. I also believe that Laguna Honda may be trying to contain an outbreak too, but I haven’t heard of specific numbers from that reporting.
Fire Analogy
Think of the virus SARS-CoV-2 (This is the name of the virus that causes the disease COVID-19.) like a wildfire. It needs to be fully contained and as long as there’s fuel around and as long as your containment lines are weak it can continue to jump and ignite other blazes.
The widespread sheltering in place has saved many lives for the moment but with the virus still finding people to infect we are all still at risk.
SARS-CoV-2 Waits for No One and is Insensitive to All Politics: Federal and Local
The Federal Government is being beaten over the head with the above message. I fear that San Francisco is in the process of having this same lesson beaten into it. Remember that early actions are worth much more than late actions, you vs the curve. I began drafting post on March 22nd asking for the hospitality industry to step up and help in this crisis. (Here’s the unedited draft Hospitality Industry Step Up) I never posted it because I heard that this was being worked on. Well it seems to have taken a huge outbreak to get any action from both the San Francisco government and the local hospitality industry. I wish that San Francisco businesses and the various branches of San Francisco Government could get over their differences to find real solutions now. Hotels your business isn’t coming back until things are under control stop trying to squeeze every penny out of the city that’s already going to go broke from this crisis.
For People in the Other Bay Area Counties don’t get Complacent
The case numbers are still going up everywhere.
I don’t believe increased testing is currently causing increases in case numbers. This certainly wasn’t the case last week and I don’t believe testing has changed that much since then.
San Mateo and Contra Costa you just had a spike of tens of cases in the last couple of days. A few more of these increases and your growth rate will go back up to San Francisco’s level.
Napa you have a low number of cases but they are increasing relatively quickly.
To everyone in the Bay Area, until all counties have their outbreaks under control, the wildfire that is the virus SARS-CoV-2 and the disease COVID-19 can quickly spread to you. If you want to get back to a semi-normal life, be concerned about what’s happening in neighboring counties.