Helping facts and action spread faster than a virus
If there’s only one thing you take away from this website it’s this: Your human mind is not built to understand exponential growth.
As humans, we always underestimate exponential growth. Even when it’s growing slowly.
If you are going to act to stop COVID-19, and I hope you are, then you must act much more forcefully now than you think is needed. And you must do so without panicking. This has been hard for me. So I have put my thoughts on steps we can all take together in the Practical Advice page.
As humans we also need feedback to know that our actions have made a difference. I have put the visualization tools you need to see how your actions make a difference on the Data page.
If you want to avoid either state security lock down or deaths on the order of 10% of your population then act now. Act more forcefully than you think you need to. And enlist as many others as you can. When you are trying to get others to act, please do so with love and not shame.
“In a free and open society citizens must be provided with facts presented in way that enables them to act.”
— Peter Khoury
This website is currently devoted to the coronavirus. Its aim is to allow everyone to viscerally understand, as best we can, what is going on. You might find that some of this information might make you anxious. Please know that the right response is not panic. You can affect the course of this pandemic not by doing anything on your own but by acting as a community. The virus spreads in the community and so the community as a whole needs to act. You are a link in that chain by affecting other people’s behavior. That is the purpose of this website. To help you understand the data, your own biases as a human being so that you have the tools to affect other people’s behavior. The way that this is not going to end in a shit show is if you can spread this information socially. This website is as eclectic as I am I hope you find a scrap of information here that you feel like sharing with somebody else. Remember that the spreading of high quality information is one of the keys to stopping this pandemic.
> How this crisis relates to climate change. (click to read)
Both COVID-19 and climate change are exponential processes. This pandemic has the advantage of taking place on a human time scale. The human mind is even more poorly equipped to think of and react to exponential processes taking place on a generational timescale. I think of this pandemic being humanity’s fire drill for climate change. This pandemic will have a massive impact on our culture but it is not apocalyptical. Climate change could potentially be apocalyptical and I don’t want to take the risk. At some point in the future when this crisis has passed this website will devote itself to climate change which is arguably a much bigger threat than the current coronavirus scare.
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Actions
- Apr 19, 2020 Ranking Bay Area Counties’ COVID-19 Dashboards. Apr 19, 2020
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Data
- Mar 9, 2022 Where I’m at March 2022 Edition Mar 9, 2022
- Dec 7, 2021 Some good news Dec 7, 2021
- Nov 3, 2021 Fall 2021: Where I Am At Nov 3, 2021
- Jul 12, 2021 The Delta News. Jul 12, 2021
- Apr 28, 2021 The Indian wave started on February 19th. Apr 28, 2021
- Apr 25, 2021 Why vaccination is so important. Answered in questions. Apr 25, 2021
- Mar 14, 2021 Explaining the Now-cast, redux. Mar 14, 2021
- Mar 7, 2021 San Francisco’s Three Waves and the potential for a Fourth Wave Mar 7, 2021
- Feb 27, 2021 Momentum- dodge the next surge by seeing what’s coming more clearly. Feb 27, 2021
- Jan 3, 2021 San Francisco’s Biggest COVID-19 Mistake Jan 3, 2021
- Jul 17, 2020 A Rant About Testing Jul 17, 2020
- Jul 10, 2020 July 2020: Where We Are At Jul 10, 2020
- Jun 18, 2020 What does asymptomatic mean? Takeaways from UCSF’s Mission Study Jun 18, 2020
- Jun 16, 2020 Wearing Masks is Effective Jun 16, 2020
- Jun 6, 2020 Perspectives on the impact of COVID-19 Jun 6, 2020
- May 16, 2020 Beautiful Graphs, Ugly News May 16, 2020
- May 10, 2020 How Close Did We Get to a Meltdown (in Round 1)? 6 Days. May 10, 2020
- May 6, 2020 Disparity Could Lead to Topsy-Turvy SF May 6, 2020
- May 4, 2020 These are not the models you are looking for May 4, 2020
- May 2, 2020 Are We Testing Enough to Reopen? May 2, 2020
- Apr 30, 2020 How We Reopen in One Chart (aka “Can I Go to Summer Camp, Dad?”) Apr 30, 2020
- Apr 27, 2020 Hidden data Apr 27, 2020
- Apr 23, 2020 A Single Outbreak Completely Skews Your Perspective Apr 23, 2020
- Apr 21, 2020 SF Demographic Data Presented Effectively Apr 21, 2020
- Apr 17, 2020 Living with uncertainty Apr 17, 2020
- Apr 17, 2020 SF Leadership an Evolving Story Apr 17, 2020
- Apr 14, 2020 A What Next Conversation Apr 14, 2020
- Apr 13, 2020 How Many Social Distancing Scofflaws is Too Many? Apr 13, 2020
- Apr 8, 2020 What Does Bay Area Doubling Rate Depend on? Apr 8, 2020
- Apr 7, 2020 The First Part of the Waiting Game Apr 7, 2020
- Apr 6, 2020 Trendlines for Your County Apr 6, 2020
- Apr 4, 2020 A Mystery In Santa Clara Apr 4, 2020
- Apr 2, 2020 See the Effects of Shelter In Place Apr 2, 2020
- Apr 2, 2020 The Uncertainty of Models Apr 2, 2020
- Mar 31, 2020 How to visualize a pandemic Mar 31, 2020
- Mar 27, 2020 How the coronavirus will end? Mar 27, 2020
- Mar 25, 2020 Another view of “doubling” Mar 25, 2020
- Mar 24, 2020 The Zombie Apocalypse vs COVID-19 Mar 24, 2020
- Mar 21, 2020 Cool maps and other data Mar 21, 2020
- Mar 21, 2020 Our World In Data Mar 21, 2020
- Mar 19, 2020 Increased testing availability Mar 19, 2020
- Mar 17, 2020 Shelter in Place Mar 17, 2020
- Mar 16, 2020 Toy Simulation Mar 16, 2020
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Data Literacy
- Mar 9, 2022 Where I’m at March 2022 Edition Mar 9, 2022
- Apr 28, 2021 The Indian wave started on February 19th. Apr 28, 2021
- Mar 14, 2021 Explaining the Now-cast, redux. Mar 14, 2021
- Mar 7, 2021 San Francisco’s Three Waves and the potential for a Fourth Wave Mar 7, 2021
- Feb 27, 2021 Momentum- dodge the next surge by seeing what’s coming more clearly. Feb 27, 2021
- Jan 3, 2021 San Francisco’s Biggest COVID-19 Mistake Jan 3, 2021
- Dec 3, 2020 Understanding Risk as a Budget Dec 3, 2020
- Nov 18, 2020 A better dance with COVID-19 Nov 18, 2020
- Nov 8, 2020 Winter is coming- what social distancing should look like. Nov 8, 2020
- Oct 6, 2020 We Should Test More on the Weekends. Oct 6, 2020
- Sep 3, 2020 Annotated spread of COVID-19 through race and ethnicity. Sep 3, 2020
- Aug 4, 2020 An archeological dig into a dataset and what that tells us about the state of testing and contact tracing in San Francisco. Aug 4, 2020
- Aug 4, 2020 Contact tracing is broken in SF. Which means we’re losing the fight. Which doesn’t bode well for the rest of the US. Aug 4, 2020
- Jul 23, 2020 About scientific debate and uncertainty Jul 23, 2020
- Apr 17, 2020 A Brief Intro to Logarithmic Plots Apr 17, 2020
- Apr 9, 2020 Spotting Quality Scientific Journalism in the Time of COVID Apr 9, 2020
- Mar 28, 2020 Logarithmic vs Linear Plots Mar 28, 2020
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Diary
- Apr 24, 2020 Dave Fence Me In Parody Apr 24, 2020
- Apr 15, 2020 Explaining the future to our past selves Apr 15, 2020
- Apr 8, 2020 The war on coronavirus Apr 8, 2020
- Mar 25, 2020 Social Distance Mar 25, 2020
- Mar 24, 2020 45 days on lockdown in China Mar 24, 2020
- Mar 23, 2020 A view from the ER Mar 23, 2020
- Mar 9, 2020 Last day in the office, only some foresight Mar 9, 2020
- Mar 5, 2020 Working on deadlines Mar 5, 2020
- Mar 3, 2020 Preparing to work from home Mar 3, 2020
- Feb 28, 2020 Community Transmition Feb 28, 2020
- Feb 26, 2020 Ahead of the curve? Feb 26, 2020
- Feb 24, 2020 Feeling Sheepish Feb 24, 2020
- Dec 31, 1969 Life on the Street: Lock Out Dec 31, 1969
- Dec 31, 1969 Oral history of Mar 11 Dec 31, 1969
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Others
- Dec 3, 2020 Understanding Risk as a Budget Dec 3, 2020
- Nov 18, 2020 A better dance with COVID-19 Nov 18, 2020
- Nov 8, 2020 Winter is coming- what social distancing should look like. Nov 8, 2020
- Oct 6, 2020 We Should Test More on the Weekends. Oct 6, 2020
- Sep 3, 2020 Annotated spread of COVID-19 through race and ethnicity. Sep 3, 2020
- Aug 4, 2020 An archeological dig into a dataset and what that tells us about the state of testing and contact tracing in San Francisco. Aug 4, 2020
- Aug 4, 2020 Contact tracing is broken in SF. Which means we’re losing the fight. Which doesn’t bode well for the rest of the US. Aug 4, 2020
- Jul 23, 2020 About scientific debate and uncertainty Jul 23, 2020
- Jul 20, 2020 Contact Tracing Article in SF Chronicle Jul 20, 2020
- Apr 24, 2020 Cartoon about Models Apr 24, 2020
- Apr 2, 2020 The Uncertainty of Models Apr 2, 2020
- Mar 31, 2020 How to visualize a pandemic Mar 31, 2020
- Mar 27, 2020 How the coronavirus will end? Mar 27, 2020
- Mar 25, 2020 Past lessons of social distancing Mar 25, 2020
- Mar 25, 2020 Another view of “doubling” Mar 25, 2020
- Mar 24, 2020 45 days on lockdown in China Mar 24, 2020
- Mar 23, 2020 A view from the ER Mar 23, 2020
- Mar 21, 2020 Cool maps and other data Mar 21, 2020
- Mar 21, 2020 Our World In Data Mar 21, 2020
- Dec 31, 1969 Oral history of Mar 11 Dec 31, 1969
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Our Data Focus
- Mar 9, 2022 Where I’m at March 2022 Edition Mar 9, 2022
- Dec 7, 2021 Some good news Dec 7, 2021
- Nov 3, 2021 Fall 2021: Where I Am At Nov 3, 2021
- Jul 12, 2021 The Delta News. Jul 12, 2021
- Apr 28, 2021 The Indian wave started on February 19th. Apr 28, 2021
- Apr 25, 2021 Why vaccination is so important. Answered in questions. Apr 25, 2021
- Mar 14, 2021 Explaining the Now-cast, redux. Mar 14, 2021
- Mar 7, 2021 San Francisco’s Three Waves and the potential for a Fourth Wave Mar 7, 2021
- Feb 27, 2021 Momentum- dodge the next surge by seeing what’s coming more clearly. Feb 27, 2021
- Jan 3, 2021 San Francisco’s Biggest COVID-19 Mistake Jan 3, 2021
- Jul 17, 2020 A Rant About Testing Jul 17, 2020
- Jul 10, 2020 July 2020: Where We Are At Jul 10, 2020
- Jun 18, 2020 What does asymptomatic mean? Takeaways from UCSF’s Mission Study Jun 18, 2020
- Jun 16, 2020 Wearing Masks is Effective Jun 16, 2020
- Jun 6, 2020 Perspectives on the impact of COVID-19 Jun 6, 2020
- May 10, 2020 How Close Did We Get to a Meltdown (in Round 1)? 6 Days. May 10, 2020
- May 6, 2020 Disparity Could Lead to Topsy-Turvy SF May 6, 2020
- May 2, 2020 Are We Testing Enough to Reopen? May 2, 2020
- Apr 30, 2020 How We Reopen in One Chart (aka “Can I Go to Summer Camp, Dad?”) Apr 30, 2020
- Apr 23, 2020 A Single Outbreak Completely Skews Your Perspective Apr 23, 2020
- Apr 21, 2020 SF Demographic Data Presented Effectively Apr 21, 2020
- Apr 19, 2020 Ranking Bay Area Counties’ COVID-19 Dashboards. Apr 19, 2020
- Apr 17, 2020 SF Leadership an Evolving Story Apr 17, 2020
- Apr 14, 2020 A What Next Conversation Apr 14, 2020
- Apr 13, 2020 How Many Social Distancing Scofflaws is Too Many? Apr 13, 2020
- Apr 8, 2020 What Does Bay Area Doubling Rate Depend on? Apr 8, 2020
- Apr 7, 2020 The First Part of the Waiting Game Apr 7, 2020
- Apr 6, 2020 Trendlines for Your County Apr 6, 2020
- Apr 4, 2020 A Mystery In Santa Clara Apr 4, 2020
- Apr 2, 2020 See the Effects of Shelter In Place Apr 2, 2020
- Mar 28, 2020 Bay Area COVID-19 Model Mar 28, 2020
- Mar 27, 2020 Hospitalization Rates in Santa Clara County Mar 27, 2020
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Political
- Mar 22, 2020 SF Hospitality Industry: Step Up! Mar 22, 2020
- Mar 21, 2020 If you haven't got your health then you haven't got your wealth. Mar 21, 2020
- Mar 20, 2020 Are bailouts a good idea? Mar 20, 2020
- Mar 19, 2020 Who do we hold to account for lack of testing? Mar 19, 2020
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Practical Advice
- Mar 21, 2020 Thinking about age based risks Mar 21, 2020
- Mar 20, 2020 The Reasons not to Hoard Mar 20, 2020
- Mar 19, 2020 Minimize the Touches / Keep Yourself Sane Mar 19, 2020
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action
- Jun 6, 2020 Action: Contact your workplace Jun 6, 2020
- May 27, 2020 Action: Contact the Businesses You Frequent. May 27, 2020